Residential And Commercial Properites

Do you see any improvement in lending policies following the North Alabama real estate S&L crisis? Something is going to fill the void. I think there's some real impetus with the lowest interest rates that we've seen in 10 or 20 years available in the marketplace today. And that's primarily in the residential, but it also affects the commercial.

What about pension fund financing? That's been touted for years and years and years, and they've been very cautious. But I think that there's a whole body of intermediaries who have been developed to provide help and assistance to direct that money. I think that it's such a large body of money that we're going to see more of that money look toward quality real estate investments as a source of income for their own portfolios.

What do you see happening in the San Diego market? We peaked at a population growth in 1998 of 92,000 net increases. In 2004 and 2005 that was cut in half, and that's another part of our problem. That population increase is by design, with the majority of the incorporated cities having some sort of growth-control ordinances which are related to limiting the number of permits given to the housing market. We have a San Diego-directed program to limit our economic growth.

What I see happening regularly now in the city councils around the county is a moderation of that approach. The politicians are saying, "Well, maybe we have gone too far, maybe we need to relax those thoughts." As the interest rates fall and the employment nationally picks up, and the attitudes of elected officials in San Diego County relax, that will accelerate the recovery in the county.

When do you see commercial real estate activity picking up? I think 2008 will definitely be an upturn year. In our firm we're seeing a significant amount of more user activity -- people in the marketplace to expand their businesses or relocate their businesses -- in the past 30 to 60 days.

Anthony Albin, vice president of Rancon Real Estate. Increased activity will vary a lot in terms of market area. Here in UTC, it's six or seven years away, and in places like Mission Valley it's closer, more like three. Downtown it gets to be someplace in the middle. The thing that is a little bit vague is that tenants have exhibited a willingness to go from one area to another.

Where formerly they may have said they would only go to Mission Valley, the last couple of years they've said, "Hey, maybe we'll expand our areas of search." In the past, we never saw a tenant look at both Sorrento Mesa and Rancho Bernardo. Where did you see most of the activity last year in absorption rates? Probably Mission Valley. And the negative area was Kearny Mesa.