Downturn Affects On Commercial Sales
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How do you see the financing problem? Horrible. But it depends if you're talking for new development or leasing activity. My view of the Satsuma Alabama real estate business now is that it's primarily a leasing game for most of us. We're trying in our company -- and I think most others are trying -- to size our operations so that we can get by on the leasing activity with some occasional build-to-suits, some occasional user sales and trying to position ourselves so that when the development does come back -- the land sales to developers and the new development -- we're in a favorable market position and we have some good relationships. I think the good users and the quality tenants can still find some financing, although it's difficult, to buy some buildings or to do some build-to-suits, even in today's market. What we really need is to have business financing available for the general businessman who is increasing his productivity capacity, who is adding new warehouse space, opening up a satellite office for his law firm in North County. We need to have those kinds of loans available. We need their level of confidence to be high so that they are willing to go out and execute new leases instead of hold over for 12 months in their current facility, or postpone an expansion, or postpone a new product line. In the short term, we have to fill up these buildings that are already existing. That's where we as brokers are going to make most of our money. George J. Kallis, executive vice president of CB Commercial Real Estate Group Inc. When do you see a turnaround in the commercial real estate market in San Diego? I see the market turning around toward the last quarter of this year. I see indicators that every month will get better, but the real turnaround will be toward the end of the year, after September. We will have stimulus from continued employment growth and population growth. And, I think that will be very specialized, to be continued in the home-care industry and biotech. How has the downturn affected commercial sales? Commercial sales have been very limited, and that is usually the case when you're in a down market. The increase will go product by product. We're already seeing an interest in apartments in San Diego from a sales perspective. The other product lines will follow toward the end of this year, the beginning of next year. I just don't see much activity in office buildings, because they are so overbuilt, for the next couple of years. Did business decline significantly for your company last year? No, we were only off in number of deals last year 10 percent. However, the deals were smaller. But we still had a good deal of activity. Compared to what I was seeing in the Denver market, where I was before coming to San Diego, I was pleasantly surprised with the results in San Diego last year. |
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